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Margin of Co-error

The most cited cofounder stat comes from The Founder’s Dilemma by Noah Wasserman: 65% of high-potential startups fail due to cofounder conflict.

YC backs it up anecdotally, but loudly:

• Sam Altman calls cofounder drama the #1 killer of early-stage startups.

• PG says cofounders are to startups what location is to real estate.

There’s also a sea of Medium confessionals and Reddit rants.

And yet for something so mission-critical, cofoundership is wildly understudied, at least from a rigorous research standpoint.

It's kind of like sleep.

Everyone agrees it’s essential. Everyone struggles with it. Everyone complains about it. But compared to diet and exercise, the research still lags far behind.

Same with cofounders. We know it’s the make-or-break.

But we're still flying blind.

What if we weren’t?

What if cofounder conflict (like a bad night’s sleep) wasn’t just survivable but predictable, preventable, and even solvable?

In an attempt to chip away at this, I’ve asked 638 cofounders. The questions:

1. What archetype are you? (I give 6 options)

2. What archetype is your cofounder? (same 6 options)

3. Do you trust their character? (yes/no)

4. Do you trust their competence? (yes/no)

5. How complementary are you personally? (1-4)

6. How complementary are you professionally? (1-4)

7. Weakest link in your cofoundership? (4 options)

Stop pretending cofoundership is some black box you either nail or fail.

It can be understood. Some submission data:

Good news, bad news, and really good news…

The bad news is that commitment/conviction, arguably the most important one, is the most common concern.

The good news is that capability/capacity, the easiest to solve for, is the second most common concern.

The really good news is that cofounder success isn’t luck or fate. It’s a skill you can develop. A relationship you can nurture. A science you can study.

If communication is the challenge, it’s the clearest sign to double down on active listening, radical honesty, and creating space for tough conversations.

If compassion is the toughest hurdle, it’s a reminder that empathy, patience, and understanding can be your superpowers.

And if capability is the easiest fix, then investing in clear role definitions, ongoing skill growth, and honest communication can unlock massive returns.

Treat your cofoundership like the asset it is. Track it, measure it, invest in it.

Or become one of the 65% who fail because you didn’t.

Will you keep flying blind?

That’s all for now,

BTW — The Cherrytree cofounder community is now open. Join here →

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